AI disasters:
understand, then prepare.
Engineered viruses, nuclear and military AI, cyberattacks, infrastructure outages, disinformation, and loss of control. When, what, and how? Learn through 100 concrete scenario questions, and earn a digital certificate (PDF) with 85 or more correct answers.
Experts are sharply divided
"p(doom)," the probability that AI causes a catastrophe, is a personal estimate, not a measurement.
Chance of human extinction within 10 years
Chance that humanity is wiped out
Chance of extinction by 2030
The disagreement itself is evidence of deep uncertainty. As with fire insurance, when the probability is low but the damage would be enormous, preparing is worth it.
When? An assumed timeline
Expert forecasts split between "around 2030" and "around 2035" and could shift widely either way. Treat the periods as rough guides.
Learn across 10 areas
Ten questions per chapter, 100 in total. Every one focuses on prevention and preparedness.
Chapter 1: The Basics — ASI and Loss of Control
Start with the vocabulary and the big picture. The fact that experts disagree is itself important information.
Chapter 2: Engineered Viruses and Biological Risk
The most closely watched area of misuse. This chapter covers only prevention and preparedness, never methods.
Chapter 3: Nuclear Weapons, Military AI and Autonomous Weapons
The central question is who makes the final decision. Speed and misperception are what cause accidents.
Chapter 4: Cyberattacks
An area where it has already begun. AI is used for both attack and defense. Doing the basics thoroughly works.
Chapter 5: Critical Infrastructure and Medical Systems
Power, water, communications, finance, medicine. When they stop, lives are at stake. Prevent the "quiet collapse."
Chapter 6: Disinformation, Deepfakes and Social Manipulation
When a society loses its shared facts, its ability to respond to every other crisis declines.
Chapter 7: Loss of Control — Runaway and Deceptive AI
Even without malice, a gap in goals combined with high capability makes control difficult.
Chapter 8: The Economy, Jobs and Concentration of Power
Disaster is not only a sudden accident. The slow loss of human agency is also a risk.
Chapter 9: Prevention and Countermeasures — Individuals, Companies, Nations, the World
Who does what, and when. With defence in depth, when one layer fails the next one holds.
Chapter 10: Conditions, Environments and Regions for Human Survival
Not "where would I be safe?" but "what lets us hold out?" Regions named here are relative assessments from research.
Three steps to your certificate
1. Answer 100 questions
Read each scenario and choose the best of three options. Your progress is saved as you go.
2. Check the explanations
After scoring, see the answer, explanation and action point for every question, plus your score by chapter.
3. Receive your certificate
With 85 or more correct, a digital certificate (PDF) with your name is issued on the spot.